My Oscar Picks 2010
NOTE: I wanted to post this before the show so all the links point to the same place right now. I’ll edit them later.
I usually like to see all the films nominated in the popular categories but this year I missed a few key films. I’ll make note of those when I think it matters.
Best Actor
The clear winner among the performance I saw is Jeff Bridges for his portrayal of a washed up country singer who is down on his luck and struggling with his addiction to alcohol in Crazy Heart. Bridges is an exceptional actor and this performance is brilliant.
I saw the other two films – The Hurt Locker and Up In the Air – twice and I would give second place to George Clooney. The second time I saw this film I found myself surprised that I’d not remembered his performance. It was a solid performance.
Unfortunately, I haven’t seen two of the performances – Morgan Freeman and Colin Firth. I understand both are excellent actors and I’m guessing both were better than Clooney and Renner.
Best Supporting Actor
I did not see The Lovely Bones or Invictus and I saw Inglorious Basterds twice.
I was thoroughly impressed with Harrelson’s performance in The Messenger. In any other year, he might be the clear winner, but I think the Oscar should definitely go to Christoph Waltz for his performance in Inglorious Basterds. His was one of the finest performances I remember seeing in any film.
Plummer’s performance was excellent in The Last Station was also excellent but I have to make Harrelson my second pick.
Best Actress
I’ve seen all of these films and I’m a fan of all these actresses, but I’m not excited about this category this year. Last year, I thought all five nominees were brilliant and I had no idea who would take the Oscar. This year I think there is a clear winner, but I’m still not that excited about it – even though it’s an actress I really love.
Julie & Julia was not nearly as good as expected. Streep is an excellent actress (and my choice for this Oscar last year) and I love Amy Adams but the people they were portraying were not nearly as lovable as the actresses themselves. I guess that colors my opinion of the movie and the performances.
Precious was a great film and Sidibe’s performance was solid – especially for a first performance – but not worthy of the Oscar, in my opinion.
Mirren was fantastic in The Last Station and I enjoyed the film, but the other two performances were better in my opinion.
I would give second place to Carey Mulligan for her performance in An_Educatoin. This is the first time I’ve seen her and I was very impressed. I’ve read that she is the favorite to win, but I think the Oscar belongs to Sandra Bullock.
The Blind Side is the kind of film I do not normally appreciate and this is no exception. I have to say I enjoyed the film more then I expected but it was not an excellent film. Bullock’s performance, on the other hand, was fantastic. My opinion might certainly be skewed by my undying love for Sandra Bullock, but I’d like to think I’m being objective. Two days before I saw this film, I’d seen her in another film where she plays a completely different role and the difference in characters was remarkable. She really did an excellent job in this film. Really? I’m not just sayin’ that because I like her.
Best Supporting Actress
I’m disappointed I did not get to see Nine. I’ve read that it was not a great film but the last few films in which I’ve seen her, Cruz has been fantastic.
I saw Up In the Air before the nominations were announced because I had read that it was going to be a favorite for Best Picture. I was very impressed with the film and with many of the performances. As I’ve already written, I wasn’t blown away by Clooney but his performance was good – as were the other performances in the film.
The performance that stood out for me was Anna Kendrick’s. I wasn’t sure if I’d just fallen for her character or not, but I loved her in the film.
When the nominations were announced I was very pleased she was nominated and I was a little confused about Farmiga’s nomination. I had not been nearly as impressed with her. When I saw the film a second time, though, it made more sense. It also confirmed my opinion of Kendrick. Her performance was excellent (and now I’m sure I’ve fallen for the character).
Then I saw Precious and a once in a lifetime performance by Mo’Nique. She was great from start to finish but her monologue late in the film was brilliant.
Just the other day I went to see Crazy Heart since I’d heard Bridges was great. I’m glad I did because Bridges is the clear winner in his category, but I don’t think Gyllenhaal wins this category. Her performance was solid and probably worthy of the nomination, but I don’t expect her to win.
I’d like to see Kendrick beat Mo’Nique, but I’d have to call this one a toss up.
Best Animated Feature
I’ve only seen two of these films but I’m certain Up wins this category. Before I learned that the best picture category was being expanded to ten films, I still felt as though Up was worth of best picture. It was that good. I assumed it wouldn’t be nominated and was pleased to learn when the field would be expanded to ten because I thought it might get a nomination. Turns out I was right but I still don’t expect it to win – because this category exists.
Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself here.
Up clearly wins this and I have to give second to the only other film I saw – Coraline, which I think was a fantastic film too.
Art Direction ##
Only seen one of these films – Avatar – so I am going to guess.
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus wins, Nine maybe.
Cinematograpy
I did not see Harry Potter (I’m a big fan of the Potter books and films, I just missed this one) and I did not see The White Ribbon.
I only saw Avatar once. I saw the other two – The Hurt Locker and Inglorious Basterds – twice.
I think Inglorious Basterds is the clear winner but any of the others could certainly win. So, I’ll have to go on my son’s recommendation on this one. He came home from Harry Potter and told me that it was one of the best “looking” movies he had ever seen. If you know my son, you understand that means a lot.
So, I’ll go with Harry Potter as my second choice. My son agrees, btw.
Costume Design
We received Bright Star from NetFlix about two weeks ago but we haven’t watched it yet. Haven’t seen any of these films so I’ll guess again.
Nine wins, Bright Star in second.
Directing
I’ve seen Avatar and [Precious][precous] once; Up In the Air, The Hurt Locker, and Inglorious Basterds twice.
I think this is an easy call really – Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker. Second place is a tougher call for me but I’d give it to Jason Reitman for Up In the Air.
Documentary Feature
I’ve only seen two of these and I think it’s toss up who wins. I’ll go with The Cove to win and Food, Inc. in second. They are both great documentaries. If you haven’t seen them, you should.
Documentary Short
Haven’t seen any of these and I’m not going to guess on this one.
Film Editing
I’ve seen Avatar and [Precious][precous] once; District 9, The Hurt Locker, and Inglorious Basterds twice.
I’m going to pick The Hurt Locker to win and Inglorious Basterds second.
Foreign Film
Also not going to guess.
Makeup
Star Trekwins and my second pick is Il Divo.
Score ##
Avatar wins and Up is my second pick.
Song
The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart and my second pick is Almost There from The Pricess and the Frog.
Best Animated Short ##
This is a tough one for me. I saw them all and they were all worthy of an award. I’m going to guess that A Matter of Loaf and Death will win but my favorite was Logorama.
Best Live Action Short
Also a tough one for me. I wasn’t a huge fan of The Door but I liked the others. My favorite was The New Tenants but I’ll make it my second pick. I think the winner will be Instead of Abracadabra
Sound Editing
I’ve seen all these films and I think this is another tough call. Up and Avatar are possibilities since they are both animated (essentially). Inglorious Basterds would also not surprise me, but I think the winner will be The Hurt Locker and my second pick is Star Trek.
Sound Mixing
I’ve seen all these and I can’t believe Transformers was nominated. That movie was one of the loudest experiences of my entire life. It sounded to me as though everything was at the same level. Perhaps it was just a problem at that theater. I hated the movie too, btw.
I think Inglorious Basterds will, and should, win. Star Trek is my second pick.
Visual Effects
I saw District 9 twice and the others once. Avatar will win, but I’d prefer either of the others win instead.
Adapted Screenplay
Along with District 9, I saw Up In the Air twice. I saw the others once. Up In the Air will win. Tough call for second but I’ll have to go with In the Loop.
Original Screenplay
I’ve seen two of these only once and the others twice. I am not going to be disappointed no matter who wins but I would choose A Serious Man or Inglorious Basterds.
Best Picture
Like I mentioned earlier, I am glad this category was expanded to ten films because I think Up deserves a nomination. It is worthy of the win but I don’t expect it to win.
I have seen all of these films – half of these movies twice – and I’d call all of them excellent films. I don’t think Avatar or The Blind Side are in the same category as the others, but they are still excellent films.
I saw Up first and I thought it was worthy of an Oscar from day one. The next film I saw was The Hurt Locker and was sure it would win for best picture. As I saw each of the next films, most of them made me wonder a bit but I stick by my original pick. My second choice is Up In the Air.
TWO CENTS EACH – 1/26/10
- 40 and 44
- Obama's first year in office is strikingly similar to that of Reagan's. Serioiusly.
- Girls just wanna have style
- Grant's vision was to find clothing that empowered girls in their development as individuals, not just sexual beings.
"I wanted to inspire them to be whatever they want in life, way beyond a princess or a diva." –Elena Grant
Good for you Ms. Grant!
- Tough Love Needed for Haiti by Jonah Goldberg on National Review Online
- "Why? Because American culture not only expects hard work, but teaches the unskilled how to work hard."
I'm not so sure I believe that??
- What the Vikings-Saints Game Shows Us About Systems and Mindsets
- An interesting point about systems. I don't completely buy the Favre argument about mindsets but I understand what the author is trying to say.
The Internet Is Fun
I know the Internet is a tremendous resource for any number of constructive pursuits, but every once in a while I am reminded of how much fun it is. I’m not talking about blatantly useless time wasting activities we’ve all engaged in – watching drunk animals or people getting injured on YouTube and things like that. I’m talking about something else.
Read more
King’s Other Dream
In a thought provoking piece entitled Martin Luther King’s other dream: Economic justice for all, John Gehring of the Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good writes:
As we pause to honor King’s legacy, it’s tempting to sanitize his radical call for economic justice or temper his prophetic words about war. We prefer King as an icon stored safely behind history’s glass case. When his words are quoted these days, we rarely hear the righteous anger of a preacher who denounced the Vietnam War and described America as the “greatest purveyor of violence in the world today.” We choose not to reflect on his warnings about the arrogance of American foreign policy. We avoid an honest grappling with his critique of capitalism as a system that permits “necessities to be taken from the many to give luxuries to the few.
Dr. King was an extremist. It seems that most of those who point this out do so as a judgement against him. Those of us who respect him and his work tend to forget it. Last year on this day I reflected on King’s extremism and did my part to express my thoughts about King the Christian and the American.
We need more extremists.
Remember his legacy by listening to some great songs inspired by his life and work.
AT&T – FAIL!
Every time I’m involved in a discussion about failed customer service it reminds me of my experiences with AT&T Wireless. And every time I wish I’d my experiences in a public place so I could give out a link and not have to talk about it anymore.
Today I spent an hour and seven minutes on the phone with AT&T to fix something that should have taken just a few minutes and I’m convinced, once again, that AT&T could not provide worse customer service if they were purposely trying to do so.
So, I’m here to detail the story of these fails so I no longer have to talk or write about them again.
Read more
Two Cents Each
- In Manhattan, Preparing for Kindergarten Admission Test
- This is simply ridiculous!
- Geeks Drive Girls Out of Computer Science | LiveScience
- Girls do seem to shy away from CS careers and that is unfortunate, but this "study" has not found the answer. I've not read anything quite so silly on livescience in a long time.
- E-books spark battle inside the publishing industry – washingtonpost.com
- Is anyone else growing tired of old school companies trying to stop innovation instead of finding a way to adapt?
- 100 Skills Everyone Should Master | Mighty Girl
- I don't think every item should be on the list but it's a great list anyway.
- Your guide to better chopstick etiquette (mostly Japanese) | Just Hungry
- A great list of tips if you want to use chopsticks properly. It does not explain "how" to use them but how to use them properly.
Great Sites
Posted via email from Bill’s posterous
Great Sites – 11/24/09
Gamebook SVG Flowcharts
- Very cool flowcharts from interactive gamebooks.
Fraidy Cats
- A log of who is and is not afraid of terrorists.
Data.gov
- The U.S. government attempts to be more transparent.
USPS Postage Calculator
- Not quite as cool as some of the other sites on this week’s list but I thought it was handy.
The Supreme Court Database
- An archive of cases from the SCOTUS. I follow a lot of the court’s cases and I love this site for catching up on some old ones.
Citizen Tube
- Digital activism.
Movies in Frames
- Another cool Tumblog. This one displays four frame summaries of movies. It’s a lot of fun
Tweeting Too Hard
- Pretentious twits and their tweets. Warning: you may find some of the tweets offensive.
In Bb 2.0
- A collaborative music/spoken word project.
RunPee
- Don’t miss any of the best parts of the movie because you have to tinkle.
- The Case Against Apple–in Five Parts
- Jason raises some excellent questions – questions many of us have been talking about for years.
- The 7 vices of highly creative people
- So, your bad habits might be a sign of creative genius.
- Happy (alleged) Birthday Mr. President
- Very funny.
- Five Ways to Fix Netflix
- An interesting list of suggestions which actually reinforce what an excellent service NetFlix is.
- Why My Wife Doesn’t Cook Dinner
- So many people fail to consider opportunity costs. This is a simple example of how that might lead you to do the wrong thing.
- Should Wedding Party In Viral YouTube Video Get A Cut Of Music Sale Profits?
- No, they should not. I understand the point being made here and I agree that if anyone is going to claim right to profit it might be them but this is where the absurdity of intellectual properties leads
- Why The FCC Wants To Smash Open The iPhone
- Smash it open!
- 'Birthers' must be stopped – Los Angeles Times
- I am not a huge fan of Maher but I usually agree with about half of what he says. This is a funny read.
- FCC Opens Inquiry of Apple's Ban of Google Voice – WSJ.com
- If the feds feel they need to stick their noses in things at least this time they are making the right move.
- 11 Cool iPhone Keypad Codes
- Some very cool ones on the list.
- Do You Have These Core Human Skills?
- Interesting list of core skills everyone needs.
- Palin's Resignation: The Edited Version
- No comment.
- QB Michael Vick conditionally reinstated by NFL
- but he can't play in games? I am not sure I understand why anyone would sign him until they know he can play.
- Texting Raises Crash Risk 23 Times
- Another study I'm not sure we needed. Texting and driving is dangerous. In case you didn't know that, read the study.
- John Travolta 'scared to leave Church of Scientology'
- The paranoia is real, John.
- Science, Reason and Critical Thinking: Celebrity Quack Trumps
- Disturbing but still funny.
- Daily Kos: State of the Nation
- Nicely done satirical letter to the President.
- How to be a regular at a restaurant
- Interesting advice for those of us who like great service.
- 3 Funny Flash Games That Make Fun Of The Gaming Industry
- Hilarious satires of today's video games!
- Web Site Story
- Mildly amusing video – funnier if you are a geek like me.
- Billie Tweets – a Twitter tribute to Michael Jackson's "Billie Jean"
- Wow – a whole lot of fun.
- Writing Songs With My Friend, Mike | Intent.com
- I never believed the scandalous reports about Michael. I never believed them for a second.
- Jackson, Fawcett deaths: Bad day for Gen X – Music- msnbc.com
- "When they departed Thursday, just a few hours and a few miles apart, they left an entire generation — a very strange generation indeed — without two of its defining figures."
- OpenGL Programming Guide (Addison-Wesley Publishing Company): Table of Contents
- Schwarzenegger’s Plane Has Emergency Landing
- SLTrib.com : Kinsley: We need new national anthem
- I can't sing so I never really thought about how unsingable the national anthem is. Don't think we need a new one though.
- Patterico’s Pontifications » Letterman Apologizes to Palin
- Though everyone overreacted on this, Dave was right to apologize. Perception is important and he probably should have thought of that.
- No More Mister Nice Blog
- Probably missing another Carrie Prejean interview while tagging this.
- SteveSilver.net: Favre on Buck
- I really can't stand Joe Buck. Not such a Favre fan anymore either.
- Create an iPhone from Scratch in Photoshop | Drawing Techniques
- This is not what I was looking for but it's cool.
- Quiz: The Great Geek Off 1.0
- Are you geek enough?
- Twitter's Search Engine Is Very, Very, Broken – louisgray.com
- Searching topics live is one of the things I've always liked best about Twitter. But it is broken.
- Pentagon Seeks High School Hackers – Forbes.com
- If this weren't the government's idea I'd be convinced it's brilliant.
- Lifehacker – Use Unplugged Earphones to Avoid Pesky Interruptions – Distraction
- Strangely, people feel more comfortable interrupting a person who is obviously intently working than a person wearing headphones. –
- Twitter / Chris Sacca: If you're going to hell, w …
- Ouch!
- 21 Amazing Movie Posters Recreated with Lego
- If you love legos or movies you will like this.
Link Roundup
Great Site: How To Become A Hacker
While digging through my notes looking for a great site to post today I ran into this gem – How To Become A Hacker
I read this years ago but the information is still extremely valuable.
A Lottery for Smart People?
A group of credit unions in Michigan has come up with Freakonomics dubs a “lottery for smart people.”
I can’t remember the last time I saw an idea that was as bad as this but seems right the first time you hear it.
Link Roundup
Great Idea: Lower the Drinking Age
I’m not sure I like all the mandate this and mandate that talk of teaching drinking but the idea of lower the drinking age makes sense to me. There is no question in my mind that teenagers drink the way they do because it is forbidden.
via kottke.org
Important Research?
In the last week I’ve heard of two studies and I’m confused. Not because I don’t understand but because I’m certain we did not need a study to discover these things.
First, Researchers have found that video games, TV and YouTube have helped popularize risky behaviors.
Second, Researchers have found that men like to look at thin, confident, seductive women.
Really?
Great Site: Custom Road Sign
If you are in the mood for some goofiness you can check out customroadsign.com. I can’t imagine this being of any real use to anyone but I thought it was funny.
If you like that one you may want to create your own motel sign or wedding sign – or even your own phony receipt or prescription.
Link Roundup
Great Idea: from Bill Gates
I’ve always believed that the world would be a much better place if more people understood physics and geometry.
Thanks to Bill Gates (did I just type that?) more people can come one step closer to my dream. According to CNET Bill Gates has acquired a series of lectures by noted physicist Richard Feynman and is making them available on the web for free on Microsoft’s research website.
Great idea Bill, Thanks!
Great Site: DownForEveryoneOrJustMe?
Ever wonder if you are everyone is having trouble with a particular website or if the problem is with you?
Well, a few months ago I learned about downforeveryoneorjustme.com and it’s just the right tool for this situation. Visit the site, type in the URL you are having trouble with, and press enter.
Check it out at http://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/.
Computer Prays for You
Information Age Prayer is a website that will say your prayers for you when you wake up late or simply forget to pray.
LiveScience reports that this service is available for only $4.95 per month and that this is not the first time there has been discussion of automated prayers.
Really?
Great Site: Flickchart.com
If you consider yourself a movie fan you must check out Flickchart.com, a new site that ranks movies based on head to head match-ups.
Flickchart presents you with two movie posters and you decide which movie you like most and click on the poster. If you haven’t seen one or both of the movies there are buttons to click for that too. Flickchart continues to present these match-ups for as long as you want to keep ranking. As you rank the movies Flickchart builds your list of top movies. The more you rank the better your list gets and the more your votes begin to count toward the global list.
It can be a wildly addictive yet frustrating experience. It was all fun and games for me until Groundhog Day hit my number one spot. Groundhog Day is a no-brainer for my top fifty and perhaps even my top twenty – but number one? I don’t think so. It sat there for a long time as I patiently ranked movies. Even more frustrating was the occupation of that spot by a movie I didn’t even enjoy very much – Saving Private Ryan. I understand it was an excellent film and that’s why it sat there for a while. Clearly I voted for it instead of the movies against which it was matched, but I can name a couple dozen films I’d rank higher if I were putting together a list myself.
I guess that is what makes the process so compelling. You rank movies one against another and try not to let the list itself influence your judgement. You need to trust the system. Does it work? I have no idea but we won’t know unless we try it, right? Try it without letting your pre-determined ideas of what should be top on the list cloud your judgement. It can be harder to do than you think.
The most frustrating part of the Flickchart experience, by a long shot, is dealing with some of the match-ups. I know these things are subjective but I’ll share some of the most frustrating match-ups I remember seeing. Please note that this is NOT a critique the ranking system at all. I’ve not had a chance to really look at the data and see how things work. I’m sure the system has flaws but that is not what this is about. What follows is just a fun look at my addiction.
The Godfather v. Thelma & Louise
In my opinion The Godfather is one of the best films of all time. Unfortunately, it is matched up against a movie which I loved but have not yet had a chance to rank. Without a doubt I click The Godfather but my problem is that after almost 1200 rankings I have a list of more than 500 movies. When I click on The Godfather, what happens to Thelma & Louise? Does it drop all the way to the bottom of my list? In this case it went right to the middle of the list. I haven’t paid enough attention to notice if new movies always drop to the middle. In any case new movies that come into the rotation late have to fight harder to get to the top. A reverse of the Groundhog Day problem really.
Being There v. Planet of the Apes (2001)
Being There is another one of my all-time favorites (and I haven’t rated it yet) but I’ve never seen this version of Apes. No big deal, right? Just ask for the next movie. Well, I know what invariably happens in these cases. I am going to get one of those match-ups which people fret about all the time – two great movies with no clear favorite. Sure enough it happens again. Now I get Man on the Moon. In the end I decided on Being There because this match-up is not quite as hard as some I’ve seen but I’ve also not yet ranked Man on the Moon so it will drop down to a spot from which it must fight its way up the list.
Spy Kids 3 v. Superman 3
Really? I have to choose between these two? Okay, I’m making this one up but I’ve seen match-ups almost as bad which escape my memory. As I write this, another Flickchart user posts this on Twitter:
I hate choosing between 2 awful movies on @flickchart more than 2 great ones. Today: Underworld vs Exorcist: The Beginning.
@brandonRohwer
Who wants to vote for a horrible movie? and what movie on my list will drop below the “winner?” Worse yet, will the losing movie drop in at the middle and outrank half my list? I certainly hope not.
The Godfather v. Dumb and Dumber
You know what I think of The Godfather. I have not seen Dumb and Dumber which makes this similar to Being There v. Apes but this is worse. There is absolutely zero chance that I would vote for Dumb and Dumber over The Godfather – zero. So what’s the big deal? Just ask for another movie right? The problem is that I can avoid the problem I mentioned in the Apes match-up – I could pretend I’ve seen the movie and be done with it without risking another Man on the Moon situation. The problem with this approach is twofold. One, I will continue to see Dumb and Dumber in my rankings which will put me in this situation again and again. Two, it’s cheating.
It is not all frustration though. The best way to avoid these frustrations is to rank more movies and hope the system works. Once in a while I will try to refine my list a bit by choosing to rank certain genres, years, or from among my top movies. Like I’ve already said, I have no idea if it works but I am having a whole lot of fun trying. Clicking on movie after movie has proven to be far more fun than I could have possibly imagined. If you don’t believe me check it out today. Flickchart is planning for launch on 09-09-09 but is in private beta right now. Visit Flickchart.com today and submit you email for an invite. While you are waiting you can watch the trailer, check out my profile, and enjoy some of the fun by following along on Twitter and FriendFeed.
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